Building Bridges #24
How accurate were our 2024 predictions?
Happy Holidays! As the year comes to a close, we want to take a moment to express our gratitude to all of you who make up the Bridge Latam community. Your support and collaboration drive our mission forward, and we couldn’t be more excited to step into the new year with such an incredible group of partners, founders, and friends. Wishing you and your loved ones joy, peace, and success in the year ahead!
At Bridge, we believe in accountability. One way we demonstrate this is by openly sharing how accurate—or off—our 2024 predictions turned out to be. Each year, we’ve made it a tradition to forecast trends across markets, politics, sports, and more. This year, the boldest prediction took the spotlight as the winner.
We awarded full credit for predictions that were clear and easily verifiable, while partial credit was given for predictions that involved subjective factors or were harder to measure.
Here are the final rankings for our 2024 predictions:
Daniel Vogel: 100%
Allison Campbell: 75%
Javier Mata: 75%
Francisco Garcia: 58%
Alejandro Maza: 43%
Miguel Garcia: 38%
Federico Ranero: 33%
Luis Enriquez: 33%
Patricio Aznar 0%
Eduardo Paulsen: 0%
Now, let’s dive into the predictions that shaped this year’s rankings.
1) Daniel Vogel (GP – Bridge | CEO – Bitso)
• Bitcoin price will reach USD +$100K. Correct
2) Allison Campbell (GP – Bridge | Co-Founder Zubale)
• Shein becomes king of fast fashion. Partial credit
• Social commerce reaches new heights with launch of TikTok e-commerce marketplace. Partial credit
• Startup funding recovers in 2nd half. Correct
• Swifties continue to boost the global economy with the world tour. Correct
3) Javier Mata (GP – Bridge | CEO Yalo)
• Apple finally revamps Siri and gets in the AI game. Correct
• Multiple apps get disrupted by assistants, companies rush to build their assistants. Partial credit
4) Francisco Garcia (Investment Associate – Bridge)
• Mexico will experience early employees of Mexican unicorns launching startups. Partial credit
• Most world records broken at the Paris Olympics. Incorrect
• Mercado Libre stock will be up more than 20%. Correct
5) Alejandro Maza (GP – Bridge | CDO – Kavak)
• At least 1 open-source model beats GPT-4 / Gemini Ultra benchmarks. Incorrect
• AI inference costs halve every 6 months. Partial credit
• 100% AI generated short film streaming on major platform. Incorrect
• New course records on 5 of 6 marathon majors. Incorrect
• New course records in UTMB & WSER. Incorrect
• Non-European wins Nobel Prize in Literature. Correct
•Nvidia top 5 company by market cap. Correct
6) Miguel Garcia (GP – Bridge | CEO – Infosel)
• US/MX central banks pivot towards easing cycle taking interest rates down. Correct
• MXN/USD trades below $15. Incorrect
• At least one Latam VC-backed startup IPOs. Incorrect
• Biden & Sheinbaum wins. Partial credit
7) Federico Ranero (GP – Bridge | CEO Draiver)
• SpaceX surpasses $500B valuation aided by Starlink. Incorrect
• OpenAI remains on top of the AI battle. Correct
• IPO market opens up in H2. Incorrect
8) Luis Enriquez (Managing Partner – Bridge)
• Rappi IPOs with equal/better valuation than its last round. Incorrect
• A US VC fund invests in a Latam unicorn round. Incorrect
• Trump gets elected. Correct
9) Patricio Aznar (Managing Partner – Bridge)
• Mexican economy to grow more than 3.5% in 2024. Incorrect
• We will see 3 major exits in Latam. Incorrect
• China takes 1st place in the Olympic medal table and Mexico wins 3 gold medals. Incorrect
10) Eduardo Paulsen (GP – Bridge | CEO Ben&Frank)
• There’s an Exit of more than USD $100M in Mexico. Incorrect
Stay tuned for the 2025 predictions.
News/Articles
Popular LatAm digital payment service AstroPay launches multi-currency wallet - Read more
Konfío Secures MX$7.42 Billion to Boost SME Support in Mexico - Read more
Sofía raises $13.5M round - Read
Redwood Ventures partners with Seedstars Capital to invest $200M in Latin America - Read more
Silicon Valley veterans unveil Stand with $30m funding to tackle climate risks -Read more
What are we reading to this month?
In Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, Scott Kupor provides an insider’s guide to the world of venture capital, breaking down the mechanics of how the industry works and what it takes for entrepreneurs to succeed in raising capital. Drawing from his extensive experience at Andreessen Horowitz, one of Silicon Valley’s most influential venture firms, Kupor reveals key insights into the dynamics of venture capital and the relationships between VCs and founders. Key takeaways include:
A deep dive into the VC decision-making process, explaining what VCs look for in a startup, from product-market fit to the strength of the founding team.
The crucial role of venture capitalists as not just investors but active partners who help shape the strategic direction of a company.
An overview of the venture capital funding lifecycle, from seed funding to later-stage rounds, and how startups should approach each stage.
The intricacies of negotiation, equity, and valuation, providing entrepreneurs with the knowledge needed to navigate these complex conversations.
Insights into the broader venture ecosystem, including the dynamics between VC firms, limited partners, and how they influence investment decisions.
This book offers a comprehensive, behind-the-scenes look at the venture capital world, providing entrepreneurs with a roadmap for understanding how VCs think and how to successfully raise capital.
What are we listening to this month?
Essentials: How to Focus to Change Your Brain
Vacancies in portfolio companies
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